In any market you will hear a common rephrase – “it’s all about timing.”

Is This the Right Time?

The Real Estate Weekly recently commissioned the Mustel Group to find out if it is the ‘right time’ to buy or sell your Vancouver home.

Who Answered The Call

The survey was based on the following parameters.

• 349 interviews were completed
• The questions were asked of residents from Hope to Pemberton
• They were 18 years of age or over

• They bought or sold a home or property in the past three years or plan to purchase/sell in the next three years or so
• Survey completed by web using Mustel Group’s randomly recruited panel
• Field dates: November 25-30, 2011;
• Total sample, including non-qualifiers, weighted by gender, age and region to match Statistics Canada data for region
• Margin of error: +/-5% at the 95% level of confidence

Plans – Past, Present

The Question(s)

1. Have you bought or sold a home in the past 3 years or so?
2. Do you plan to buy or sell a home or property within the next three years or so?

The Result

Searching for the Perfect Vancouver Home

The Question(s)

If you were buying a home in the future, what do you think would be your main source of information about homes for sale? Please choose your top two sources.

Would You Use:

1. Internet
2. Realtor
3. Newspapers
4. For Sale Signs
5. Other

The Result

Thoughts

It’s uncertain why dollars were spent to derive these answers when there exists multiple surveys regarding this knowledge much of which is free and available on-line. One thing that can be said is that the consistency of the result is unanimous within them all. The internet is and has been for a number of years the preeminent source for Vancouver real estate information. Although it is unlikely to be classified as scientific research in the use of the internet as a first source when searching for Vancouver homes, the amount of traffic using the free home search available on this blog totals multiple thousands annually.

Would You Buy In Winter

The Question(s)

Would you consider purchasing a home during the months of December or January?

The Result

Of the 225 responses, 58 past buyer/sellers and 193 future buyers/sellers proffered the following rationale

• Believe to be a good time to buy (more negotiating room, lower prices)
• Time of year does not matter/not a concern
• No choice due to relocation or other circumstances
• Starting a new year
• Other

Commitment Levels

Taking into consideration the above rationale espoused by Vancouver real estate buyers and sellers their level of commitment to actually proceed with the task exceeds 50%.

Thoughts

While the commitment level seems optimistic, in general the volume of sales numbers do not seem to statistically coincide with the responses given. December real estate sales in Vancouver have traditionally been the slowest month of the year. While the survey indicates that interest is high the reality appears substantially different.

Community Perspective

Thoughts

Depending on where you live appears to influence whether you would consider buying or selling a home in Vancouver during the December/January period. This leaves us to ponder what element(s) exist within each community to account for the variation. Are things like personal net wealth, ethnic background or current income factors?

Unfortunately, these questions are beyond the scope of this survey but such answers are needed in order to provide a more insightful perspective of what makes Vancouver buyers and sellers tick.

Regardless, a hat tip to REW for making this information available in their effort to warm the December-January market chill.

Survey Results Displayed Courtesy of Real Estate Weekly Reprinted with Permission
REW’s Perspective
Hat Tip – Susan Kirk
Image Credit

That’s old news!

Today is the start of a new never before seen no money to win but you get lots of glory pool.

How to Play

This one is no brainer. You’ll need 3 pieces of paper, a pen and crayons. Posty notes work best but tearing sheets off your roll of toilet paper will work too.

Take the first piece and label it November 2011 Vancouver Detached Homes. Then with all the wisdom at hand determine if the average price for November 2011 will go up or down. Depending on your decision, draw an up or a down arrow. Color would be nice but since this is a cheap pool black and white will do.

On the next piece follow the same rule only this time label it Vancouver Attached homes. Now draw your up or down arrow indicating your vision of what has past.

Last, grab the third piece of paper. Follow the same rules laid out above except this time label it Vancouver Apartments. Don’t forget to place your up or down arrow.

Play to Win

This is better than collecting coupons! Tomorrow I will be publishing the Average Price stats for Vancouver Real Estate.

If your arrows match the ones on my graph you are a winner. You can shout “yipppeee” and phone your mother to let her know but please remember, she probably will be sleeping and won’t appreciate or understand the reason for your the call!

I’m only guessing but, it is probably more safe to let your cat or dog know you won the prize. After due consideration – other than the readers here at YatterMatters it is probably not safe to let too many people know you entered a colored arrow toilet paper contest.

The Prize

The prize is a bit of fun for all.

If your arrows and tomorrow’s arrows on my Vancouver Average Price graph match directions for the three classifications, initial the paper your arrows are on then scan and email them to me – PDF files would be best.

All winning entries received by Monday will be published here. If you want to add some other tasteful and artistic embellishments please do so. The only limitation is that children whom I like to think of as future economists read this blog – so be mindful of your etchings.

Get your crayons ready. Time is running out. Winners if any, will get all the glory I can muster next week.

This might have some positive reflections for the Vancouver Real Estate market. Cameron notes in his economic report that although the numbers are below the historical average people, are still buying stuff.

George Carlin makes sense of it all. One idea is to buy a bigger Vancouver home in which to put your stuff!

Canadian Retail Sales – November 22, 2011

Canadian retail sales jumped 1.0 per cent in September, the fifth increase in the last six months and the largest increase since November 2010. The increase in sales was broad based with 9 out of 11 sectors reporting higher sales. The strong performance in retail sales was driven by the motor-vehicle and parts industry which rose 2.8 per cent from August. Excluding auto-related sales, retail sales were up 0.5 per cent. Retail sales in BC increased 0.2 per cent month-over-month or 2.6 per cent over September 2010.

Provincial retail sales grew at a slightly faster pace in September, but are still running at a much lower rate compared to historical average. We anticipate that a combination of high debt burdens and weak full-time employment growth is likely to keep retail spending relatively low through the end of the year and into 2012.

CMHC’s Outlook Conference offered up their market research and analysis as well as some forecasts for 2012.

The Provincial Outlook

• BC & Alberta’s economies are expected to continue leading the country
• Population and global demand for western resources will keep the West growing
• BC real estate prices are expected to dip 1% mainly due to easing of values on Vancouver Island and the Interior
• Vancouver and Fraser Valley continue to be main economic engine for the province
• Overall Sales activity is expected to increase slightly in 2012 to 81,900 sales from 77,200 forecast for 2011.
• Interest Rates are expected to remain near record lows as economic volatility continues in Eurozone and US
• Migration still an important driver to BC’s economy with 20,000 new households expected
• Majority of migrants settle in GVRD
• Housing starts are expected to maintain a balanced market with 28,500 new starts forecast in 2012.

Vancouver Outlook

• Land Constraint and demand from migration to area (abroad and inter-provincially) will keep prices firm in Vancouver
• 2012 MLS price is expected to increase 2% in Vancouver to average price of $805,000.
• Single Family Home prices are expected to level off. The 26% average appreciation in SFD homes isn’t sustainable.

• Supply & demand are considered balanced. Condo supply has decreased from 2600 units to 1300 units – now a 6 month supply
• Multi-Family starts and completions should keep market balanced
• Investor purchases and secondary suites continue to supply the majority of rental units with vacancy rates considered low
• Breakdown of buyers according to a recent Landcor survey are as follows:
  - 9% of overall sales in GVRD are tracked to immigrant purchasers
  - 74% of high end luxury purchases are tracked to Asian Buyers
  - 3% of purchases are tracked to Investment purchasers.
• Renovation spending is expected to remain healthy with 3.7 Billion forecast for 2012
• Speculative activity remains low with only 4% of sales turning over within 12 months
• Properties located near transit, less than 5 years old, allow pets, or rentals, and have an extra bathroom obtain highest sale prices.

Risks & Opportunities

With affordability stretched in single family markets, high land and development costs, we see strata properties as an opportunity for First Time Buyers and Investors. This being said, there are risks to CMHC’s forecast such as Global Financial issues in Europe and US, Government changes relating to taxes and borrowing, along with Migration trends.

Courtesy Rob Regan-Pollock AMP | Invis – Team Rob Regan-Pollock, Reprinted with permission.

CMHC Reports Here:
Canada Highlights
Canada Housing Market Outlook

Image Courtesy CMHC

There is no real estate bubble in Vancouver but, according to a panel of speakers at a recent Board of Trade event, a lack of clear transitional rules leading up to the return of the provincial sales tax is having a negative effect on the real estate industry.

Who Said That?

That was the message delivered by the panel of three real estate industry experts, including the Board’ President-Elect Eugen Klein, to a packed house at the Board of Trade’s Bubble Trouble event on October 21 at the Fairmont Hotel in Vancouver.

Other panelists included Ward McAllister, president of Ledingham McAllister Properties, and Richard Wozny, of Site Economics Ltd. The panel was moderated by David Podmore, CEO of Concert Properties Ltd.

According to Klein

Each of the speakers presented information that helped to set the overall picture of what they consider to be a solid overall market that is not in the midst of a bubble. But they directed their strongest comments towards the impact that the lack of transitional rules is having on the market right now.

• “Potential buyers, especially the under-25 group, are sitting on the sidelines,” said Klein. “It’s also affecting home renovation projects with HST on them because consumers don’t know what to do.”

Beggers Banquet

McAllister was the most vocal in his criticisms, noting that he and his company have been “literally begging” the provincial government for transitional rules since the results of the referendum to repeal the HST were announced.

• “What is amazing to me is that it took the government three days to bring this new tax in and now they are telling us it is going to take up to 18 months to unravel,” said McAllister. “This is really hurting us in the new home business just because of the uncertainty.”

Helping Hands

Both Klein and McAllister noted that they are seeing developers taking on a portion, or even all, of the HST on their product to try and remove that uncertainty for potential buyers.

Vancouver Real Estate Perspective

Other information provided by the speakers suggested that the Metro Vancouver real estate market is healthy and stable.

• Wozny forecasted that low interest rates will hold steady into the foreseeable future, which will translate into continuing sales, and McAllister highlighted immigration data that shows that approximately 52,700 immigrants will move to British Columbia in 2011. Of that total, some 42,000 will move into the Metro Vancouver area, meaning that the need for new housing will remain strong.
• Klein pointed to steady residential sales driven by high-end property demand in Richmond, West Vancouver and the Westside of Vancouver. He also updated major commercial projects that will add approximately five million square feet of retail space and 1.5 million square feet of office space to Metro Vancouver by 2015.
• “Putting the residential and commercial real estate sectors in perspective, the Lower Mainland remains a very desirable place to live and work,” said Klein.

Sympathy for the Devil

The buy-in to all this is whether you believe the words. Presumptive, is that the under-25 group might proffer an alternate view suggesting that even without the HST, they ‘do’ know what to do. Disenfranchised with the rhetoric they have little sympathy for these words for they have lost their dream bubble. Instead their dream is a place in which low income is the reality. A reality that precludes the idea of owning a Vancouver home of their dreams.

Easily forgotten is that the under-25′s are more aware of their plight than ever before. A look at the Rolling Stones’ lyrics from 1968′s Beggars Banquet, might explain just how much they really do know about the people who ask them to believe.

“What’s confusing you – It’s just the nature of my game – Just as every cop is a criminal – And all the sinners saints – As heads is tails – Just call me lucifer – I’m in need of some restraint

So if you meet me – Have some courtesy – Have some sympathy, and some taste
- Use all your well-learned politesse – Or I’ll lay your soul to waste”

Text and Image Copyright Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. Reprinted with permission.

Images and Lyrics Courtesy Rolling Stones

When a market appears to slow watchers begin to search for a cause asking whether the reason is this or that?

Vancouver watchers are in a guessing game as they question what happened to the presumed influx of off shore wealthy Chinese buyers of Vancouver real estate. Claire Wilson has the answer.

Big Apple

According to Ms. Wilson of the New York Times, those or at least some of those wealthy Chinese buyers are taking a bite out of the Big Apple.

Quoting Pamela Liebman, CEO of the Corcoran Group, Wilson says that “in about two years, what was at first a trickle of inquiries has grown to a stream of freshly minted high-net-worth Chinese businesspeople hunting for condominiums for $500,000 to $10 million and up. The average purchase is a one-bedroom apartment for about $1.45 million.”

Bigger Bite

For a bigger bite of Ms. Wilson’s report click here.

Image Credit

This gimmicky idea was last seen a number of years ago. It seemed pretty stupid at the time and even more so now. This time, the ‘stumble upon’ brought new perspective to Vancouver Real Estate leaving some unanswered questions.

Myopic Question

From a self righteous perspective and with more than a little tongue in cheek, one finds when reading a number of Vancouver and Canadian Real Estate blogs that one begins to wonder if some of the editors in chief actually purchased one of “Privacy Scarves.” The lasting question is whether the scarf’s myopic view precludes them from the acceptance of other opinions and the ability to find the web instructions describing the step by step scarf removal process.

Robbie Burns

It’s hard to keep an open mind. It is even more difficult with a sock over your head. I would like to think I’m lucky. Tugging at the sock was a gift from the famous Scottish poet who constantly reminds me to ‘see ourselves as others see us.’ It is not a perfect philosophy but it does help.

“As anticipated, the Bank of Canada opted to hold the Bank’s target rate at 1 per cent this morning. On inflation, the Bank noted that, “…inflation is expected to remain above 3 per cent in the near term, largely reflecting temporary factors such as significantly higher food and energy prices.

” However, the Bank expects total CPI inflation to return to 2 per cent by the middle of 2012 as excess capacity in the economy is absorbed. The Bank pared back it’s growth forecast for 2011 and 2012 slightly to 2.8 and 2.6 per cent respectively, mirroring BCREA’s own national economic forecast for the next two years.”

Global Influence

“In reference to heightened uncertainty in the global economy due to ongoing debt concerns in Europe and the current wrangling over the US debt-celing, the Bank noted that “widespread concerns over sovereign debt have increased risk aversion and volatility in financial markets.” This uncertainty, along with a weaker outlook for US economic growth, will likley push the Bank’s next rate increase to September, but possibly to October. In light of a weaker global economy and increased uncertainty, we have pared back our expectations of Bank of Canada rate hikes to between 1.5 and 1.75 per cent by the end of 2011 with risk tilted to the downside. This means a continuation of very borrowing costs on variable rate products over the summer and into the fall which should help support housing markets this year.”

“Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.”

This is one of those information flying through your door days. First, it was the previous post about new construction and now this one, what you can expect to pay for your property taxes in 2011.

Compliments of Rudy Neilson at Landcor® Data Corp you will find a link herein to his predictions.

Winners and Losers

If you bought a home in Whistler expecting that the Olympics were going to give you the Midas touch you are not going to be happy about the downhill slide. Rudy says to expect taxes to reflect a drop of 12% for detached homes and 14.5% for condos.

Using Rudy’s numbers, if you bought a home of the West Side of Vancouver, you will have benefited from the ‘mythical Midas of the east’ described in the UBC report as you watch your property tax values rise by 27.7% for a detached home and 14.1% for a condo.

With a degree of ‘they told you so’ perspective, somebody has to pay for the party and the legacy of the Millenium. Nobody will escape this as I expect that landlords soon will be increasing their rents in 2011 to offset these accelerated taxes.

Best Place to Own a Loser

Mackenzie BC, that sunspot of a mill town north of Prince George which will see its property taxes drop a whopping 55.1% – an indication of how bad it can get in a one industry town. Not far behind was Invermere, a quaint place I like to visit, that took second place as it watches its property values succumb to a drop of 46.4%

Soothe Your Soul

In keeping, no discussion about taxes would be complete without a little music from the Beatles to soothe your soul.

Sources:

Rudy’s Tax Value Predictions

UBC Study

If you use the ‘Find Your Home’ feature on this blog you are gaining access to IDX – Internet Data Exchange. A fair number of Realtor® sites offer some variation of IDX.

According to rough estimates from the Real Estate Board of Vancouver of the 10,000 plus members only about 5,500 are licensed/registered to offer this service of which the majority use a third party vendor.

I was surprised to find that only 3 (subject to change), Vancouver Realtors® have developed their own software to make use of the IDX. Thanks to Dan at Ollie Media, I’m one of them.

The IDX here at YatterMatters is an omnibus solution as it offers information on all active listings from three real estate boards – Vancouver, Fraser Valley and Chilliwack. I have never sold a house in Chilliwack but I have referred people who have found a home via ‘Find A Home” to agents in that city.

Significance

A questionable side benefit of the ‘custom IDX’ is that each day it records the total number of active listings for all three boards. I haven’t quite wrapped my brain around the significance of this other than it might serve as one more bit of market information on a lower mainland scale.

Below is the result of tabulating the daily numbers since October 1st.

** If you think it serves a purpose let me know, otherwise it’s just a lot of work for nothing.**

Note 1: the days that are missing are a result of the server in California having a hiccup.

Note 2: you will always see drastic number changes at month end

Stats

As a matter of interest: Assuming that the IDX has 20,000 listings with up to 10 pictures per listing this equates to 220,000 records that reside on the YatterMatters server for IDX alone. Adding the several thousand pictures in the Galleries, post image files for 850 posts plus site program files and we approach a half a million files to make this place run. Seems like a lot of stuff just to tell you what I think.