Market states in Vancouver’s market segments are comprised of elements that include Units Listed, Units Sold, Active Listings, and Average Sale Price. Within those segments are property types referred to as Detached, Attached and Apartment. The data presented focuses on the detached property type.

We have examined the elements in previous posts having looked at the overall state of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver’s (REBGV) and individually at the West side – one segment of the total market. Today we look at another major segment – the East side.

East Side Detached Units Listed

Units Listed have continued to drop sharply from April’s high of 408. That number is by comparison to May and June of 2004 small as those months recorded the number of units listed at 536 and 539. Currently, 302 units were listed in June 2010.

East Side Detached Units Sold

There has been a steady drop in sales to the current 145, down from this year’s high which in March 2010 recorded 174 sales on the east side – a number that approached but never came close to the 311 sales recorded in April of 2005.

East Side Detached Active Listings

No one is able to truly ‘guesstimate’ when Active listings will begin to subside. At 814 recorded this June, it is a force to be reckoned with but, it certainly is not as high as the 1,080 Active listings recorded in October of 2008.

Capilano Suspension Bridge 1906

East Side Detached Average Price

The average price on the east side has exceeded what was thought to be a high in March of 2010 when $802,364 was recorded as the average price. It currently rests at $803,939.

Bridge to Future

Somewhere in all of this is a bridge to future market conditions. In the interim, like these men and women who took a moment to appear in this 1906 snap shot while on the Capilano suspension bridge, it would seem that we too must take a moment in time as we wait for this east side snapshot to become market history.

The beginnings of the change can be seen. Units listed are decreasing as are sales. What remains incongruent is the balance between the number of Active listings and Average prices. One will follow the other and we can expect that both price and active listings are due to correct.

Yesterday’s Residential Averages delivered some surprises.

Combining market elements such as Units Listed, Units Sold, Active Listing to the Average price provides provides a more comprehensive perspective.

Vancouver Detached Units Listed

Units Listed continued to drop from April’s high of 3183, a record level, down to June’s 2300.

Vancouver Detached Units Sold

If the number of sales are the measure of a market then this market is slowing. At 1141 it has decreased from April’s high of 1372. Reviewing the year, January and February were lower at 709 and 984 respectively. Presumption is that the market may well reach those levels again but – be prepared for surprises.

Vancouver’s Detached Active Listings

Active Listings continue to pile up. Currently at 7529 it seems like an extraordinary number of homes for sale. It does not however, surpass the 10,382 active listings of April 1990, a month in which there were only 1,008 homes sold.

Thoughts

Photo Credit

While composing this missive at Hornby Island’s Ford Cove, it is hard to dismiss the implications that the continued high level of active listings relative to sales will have on this market. As evidenced from yesterday’s average price up and down bumps one should expect an unsettled market that will beg many questions –

• Will sales continue to decline?
• Will prices hold, rise or drop?
• Will buyers sit out the market till it settles into a more passive level.
• What effect(s) will global influences have on the local market?

Assumed is that any speculation regarding Vancouver’s real estate market will allow for as many surprises that were and will continue to be delivered by 2010′s FIFA games.

The last time we had a look at the average residential prices it seemed that we came up short on April’s showers as we watched May’s Average prices take a bit of a tumble.

Today, on Canada Day 2010, the roles of attached and detached home sellers has reversed their fortunes.

Average Price 1977 – 2010

Detached

In full bloom again, June’s average detached price of $970,542 rose above May’s $955,154.

Attached

Attached properties also blossomed as June’s average attached price rose to $569,037 from May’s $541,507.

Apartments

April’s average apartment price took a hit at $427,847 bouncing in May to $444,055 only to wilt in June at $428,924.

Vancouver Real Estate Average Price Numbers:

Vancouver Real Estate Inventory – Active Listings

Vancouver Real Estate – Units Sold

Expanding on the East side average price post entitled ‘Looks Like’ further, we breakout East Side Apartments to have a look at this segment.

East Side Apartments

Apartments Units Listed

In the past year only three months have superseded the 215 units listed in May 2010. They were September 2009 at 247, March 2010 at 276 and April 2010 at 306. Doing basic math, the average number of units listed per month rounds out to 204 for the 13 month period. If you view an average an acceptable perspective then the extra 11 units that were listed in May 2010 doesn’t seem overt. However……

Apartments Units Sold

Units Sold have dropped but how bad is it. The lowest month in the past year was January 2010 at 90 and the highest was July 2009 at 179. Using the same calculation as above the average number of continually dropped from July 09′s 71 trickling down to 29 in December 09. They began a slow climb to 40 units in May. The average number of sold units in the May 2009 to May 2010 period was 136 per month.

Apartments Active Listings

Active Listings with little variation, continued to pile from May 09 to May 10. Units Listed accelerated in the April/May 2010 period adding a greater inflow rate. This event occurred while Sold Units slid in the past month. The combination skewed out of balance leaving May top heavy with inventory.

Apartments Average Price

Overall east side apartments have experienced a steady climb from May 2009′s $313,054 rising to May 2010′s $362,050
With the exception of some flutters along the way, average prices prices have been a force.

Worry’s

High levels of inventory haunt this market. Should slow sales persist and drop below 100 units, east side apartments will perform poorly during the balance of this year. On a positive note – over all this market has performed well to date. The question is how long will it take before the puzzle piece no longer fits?

A couple of days ago the East side average price post entitled ‘Looks Like’, stirred conversations about this market’s direction and the influences that affect it.

In part, based on those conversations, it struck as important to see if the individual residential components that make up the east side market would further understanding to those conversations.

East Side Attached

Attached Units Listed

The number of Units Listed were quite steady numbering from a low of 49 in October 09 to June 09′s high of 79. For the entire period fromfrom May 09 to March 2010 units listed held steady ground. In April 2010, listings caught fire increasing to 117. Now, in May 2010 that has reversed to 94.

Attached Units Sold

Units Sold continually dropped from July 09′s 71 trickling down to 29 in December 09. They began a slow climb to 40 units in May.

Attached Active Listings

Active Listings continued to pile up from May 09 to May 10. As Units listed continued to flow in and Sold Units decreased it all but stopped the number of units removed from inventory .

Attached Average Price

During the past year the east side attached market has been seen ups and it has seen some downs. It has stretched from the year’s low of $491,000 set in December 09 up to the peak of $584,686 set in February 2010.
Average Price has since sputtered down to $544,776 in May 2010.

Worry’s

One cannot question that the higher level of inventory will continue to haunt this market – particularly if the sales continue to perform poorly during the balance of this year.

One would think that for Buyers this market has got to be great although a bit frustrating due to the amount of choice available. As any buyer will tell you, looking at homes is hard work and demands a lot of time. You would think that abundant choice and dropping prices should be a dream come true. But for some, that dream may be nightmare?

With the release of the The Vancouver real estate market statistics, it now seems to be a market in need of a good tailor to repair the suit of past high prices and fast sales.

In the weeks ahead market generalizations will become more difficult to pin down. It will, as our friend Jake Moldowan says, be a good time for “those looking to buy or sell a home to remember that real estate is local and wise real estate decisions are made by those who understand current market conditions at the neighbourhood level.”

Made to Measure

As always, I’ll be sewing together some Neighbourhood Snapshots beginning in the next day or so. Got a favorite neighbourhood in East,West, North Van or West Vancouver?

Email me and I’ll stitch it together for you – no anonymous requests please. First come first serve but remember there are not enough days in the month to sew them all. If you have a favorite picture of your neighbourhood include that as well.

In the interim, the following is the June 2010 report from the real estate board.

Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver Monthly Market Report

• VANCOUVER, B.C. – June 4, 2010 – The number of properties listed for sale in Greater Vancouver continued to rise in May, while the number of sales showed a year-over-year decrease.
• The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 3,156 in May 2010, a decline of 10.4 per cent compared to the 3,524 sales in May 2009; 5.1 per cent more than the 3,002 sales in May 2008; and 27.1 per cent less than the 4,331 sales in May 2007. May 2010 sales also represent a 10.1 per cent decline compared to last month’s sales.
• In terms of number of property listings, last month marked the third consecutive month during which more than 7,000 homes were listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) in Greater Vancouver.
• New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties totalled 7,014 in May 2010, a 48.2 per cent increase compared to May 2009 when 4,733 new units were listed, and an 8.3 per cent decline compared to April 2010 when 7,648 properties were added to the MLS®.
• At 17,492, the total number of property listings on the MLS® increased 10 per cent in May compared to last month, and is up 28.2 per cent compared to this time last year.
• “Prospective home buyers in today’s market have a broad selection to choose from in every property type. REALTORS® are telling us they’re working with buyers who are not feeling as rushed to make a decision as they did late last year and earlier in the year,” Jake Moldowan, REBGV president said.
• Over the last 12 months, the overall MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver increased 16.7 per cent to $590,662 from $506,201 in May 2009.
• “It’s important for those looking to buy or sell a home to remember that real estate is local and wise real estate decisions are made by those who understand current market conditions at the neighbourhood level,” Moldowan said.
• Sales of detached properties in May 2010 reached 1,256, a decrease of 10.4 per cent from the 1,402 detached sales recorded in May 2009 and a 4.4 per cent increase from the 1,203 units sold in May 2008. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 19.1 per cent from May 2009 to $810,175.
• Sales of apartment properties reached 1,354 in May 2010, a decline of 7.1 per cent compared to the 1,458 sales in May 2009 and an increase of 8.8 per cent compared to the 1,244 sales in May 2008.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 13.9 per cent from May 2009 to $398,783.
• Attached property sales in May 2010 totalled 546, a decline of 17.8 per cent compared to the 664 sales in May 2009 and a 1.6 per cent decline from the 555 attached properties sold in May 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 14.8 per cent between May 2009 and 2010 to $500,339.

Full Report Here

If the only view of the world you had was the June 01,2010 graph of the Vancouver Average Real Estate price you might think it looks like the local real estate market is crashing.

However, if today you were selling your east side detached home you might perceive a different picture.

East Side Average Price May 2008 – 2010

Detached

May’s east side detached average increased by a small amount from April’s $777,786 to $778,519. Not spectacular by any measure and possibly encouraging except for the other segments of Vancouver’s real estate universe.

In March that universe reached an all time record. We held our breath in April as the average price eclipsed March. With May’s arrival we gasped at the thought of prices continuing to rise. Nobody really knew the answer but many asked how can this possibly continue.

We looked for causes to explain the record prices. A not nice but seemingly normal reaction when fear enters the picture, we find someone to blame. Amongst other entities, the flavor of the day target this time, was once again, the ‘rich’ Chinese mainlanders.

Then, it happened! In May average prices dropped. Yet here on the east side the detached and apartment home’s average price cautiously increased. Why?

Could this be a market flutter? Is it this market’s last breath? Interesting it is to speculate on market changes but, as always, we will look to the numbers to give us an indication. The perrenial problem is that the numbers only relate market history be it the past day, the past week or the past month. They do not tell us what will be.

A conundrum unfolds from this uncertainty. How does a seller unlock the market door to get his home sold? In this changing market suggested is that sellers discuss and develop with their Realtor® a quick response contingency plan for selling their homes. Unfortunately for the seller, the most powerful tool in the contingency arsenal when selling in a down market means a quick succession of price reductions or a best guess leap ahead of the train. Sadly, neither of these actions will not guarantee that your home will sell.

Attached

Unlike the detached homes which for now have held their ground, attached property prices have tumbled backwards. The flutter happened in April. Average price registered two months ago were $543,043 and approximate May’s $544,776, down significantly from April’s $581,148.

Apartments

Apartment owners are on the same bus as the detached home sellers. Their segment of the market experienced a bump upwards from April’s $343,743 to May’s $362,050. Looking further back, May’s average price was the highest recorded this year.

Considering the overall unsettled market attitude, sellers of apartments and detached homes might want to look to the attached market as an indicator of the future. It may be time to practice deep breath exercises.

Thoughts

Some discussion is taking place suggesting that comparisons of year over year numbers in a market that changes direction as quickly Vancouver’s is somewhat irrelevant. Certainly, comparisons to any historical numbers prior to April of 2009 do not hold significance to today’s values but, like the market of today that may change.

A problem with looking at shorter term periods is the fluidity of the market itself. Avid market watchers refer to the noise of market activity as being difficult to contend with.

We have daily numbers showing sold units, units listed and price changes. These numbers change by the minute. Weekly totals are the extension of those numbers which then accumulate to provide monthly and yearly totals. Somewhere in all of these numbers is the pulse of the market. Deciding which to use is always a personal choice and the level of dedication necessary to keep track.

To this mix add personal, political, financial and global influences. Each individually or combined affects your outlook. From that base is constructed a perspective of the real estate market which determines the decisions you make when buying or selling your home.

Many I think, bypass all this and simply feel that it ‘looks like’ the right time.

An old rule of sailing is that you never know where you are going to end up unless you know where you are coming from.

Charting a course in Vancouver real estate is difficult at the best of times as there are many elements to consider. Plotting the past months detached home activity includes the number of units that were listed, the number that sold, and the current inventory of active listings. Add to this the average price and a course outline begins that hopefully will take us to safe harbour.

REBGV Detached Units Listed

Beginning a system wide plot line in January of 2010 the number of detached units listed stood at 1952. In February the listed units declined to 1,822 only to skyrocket to 3,183 in March and finally settling at 2,950 in May.

REBGV Detached Active Listings

The plot line for Detached Active listings differed slightly. In January there were 4,134 active listings. This climbed steadily to May’s high of 7,368. It was a month where you might have sometimes not recognized the route home for the ever changing landscape of For Sale signs that kept popping up.

REBGV Detached Units Sold

Detached Homes that sold in May seemed to be golden. April was a busy month with 1,372 units selling which then dropped in May to 1,243. The truly golden month of unit sales was June 09 which recorded 1,677 .

REBGV Detached Average Price

Many have been speculating when and if this event would occur. They don’t have to wait any longer for in May the average price hit some hidden rocks and sunk from previous all time record highs down to $955,348.

Thoughts

In isolation the numbers for each element leave you to wonder at the direction this market will take. However, looking back over the past two years the meanderings of the highs and lows in the Vancouver market does at first, not appear unusual.

Certain elements such as the number of active listings have been much higher as seen in September 2008 – 8,729.

The number of units listed in May of 2010 – 2,950 while high, have not reached the level seen in May 2008 when they reached 3,222.

Detached Average prices has been riding a wave over the $900,000 level since October 2009.

What is at odds is number of units sold relative to the active inventory. You could say that it is off course. Suspect is that major adjustments are necessary if the market is to reach safe harbour.

Here’s a few months of plotting for your comparisons. Do you think Vancouver real estate will reach home port?

The showers of April were not enough to stop Vancouver’s real estate market
flower from wilting. For the two months prior, records were broken as the
highest average detached prices were recorded in the Real Estate Board of
Greater Vancouver’s history. In May 2010, those records are now a thing of the
past as the average detached price heads back to familiar
territory.

Average Price 1977 – 2010

Detached

March’s average price of $1,002,020, for a detached home in Vancouver was
eclipsed by April’s $1,003,884. May saw a few petals fall off the bloom as the
detached average price dropped to $955,154. Another price drop of this magnitude
and Vancouver detached will be approaching 2008 prices – see numbers below.

Attached

Attached properties took a slide from April’s average of $551,385 down to
$541,507.

Apartments

April’s apartment average price took a hit at $427,847 but has bounced back
up to $442,835.

Vancouver Real Estate Average Price Numbers:

Vancouver Real Estate Inventory – Active Listings

Vancouver Real Estate – Units Sold

If Vancouver’s East Side real estate market were a major league baseball game in which the bases were loaded, you can imagine that the boys in the dug out are standing on their toes waiting for the final pitch. The batter wonders – will the next pitch result in a home run or the last swing in the final inning.

East Side Average

1. Detached

Photo Credit

The first negative stumble was last month’s average price of $802,364, for a detached home on the east side of Vancouver which dropped to an average sale price of $777,786.

2. Attached

Attached east side properties countered the detached stumble with an increase from March’s $543,043 to April’s average of $581,148.

3. Apartments

The second pitch ended in a strike against the east side apartments. March’s $352,550 was a swing and a miss with as the ball slapped the catcher’s glove confirming April’s Average price drop to $343,743.

Vancouver’s East Side Real Estate Average Price Numbers: