In the Year of the Dragon some will say that the beast has set fire to Vancouver’s Real Estate.

Average Price 1977 – 2012

Detached

Vancouver home prices felt the heat. Rising from December 2011′s low of $1,064,249, the average Vancouver detached home price increased to $1,145,956 in January 2012.

Attached

Vancouver’s Attached properties also felt the flames as the average price increased from December’s 2011′s $511,948 to January 2012′s $552,696.

Apartment

Close but not close enough to feel the heat, Vancouver Apartments average price fell from December 2011′s $443,808 to January 2012′s $439,566.

Vancouver Real Estate Average Price Numbers:

Vancouver Real Estate Inventory – Active Listings

Vancouver Real Estate – Units Sold

*Percent = YOY

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Two of Vancouver’s divine numbers are those recorded as sales and active listings.

Bad Numbers

In 2011 Vancouver and lower mainland Active Listings hit bottom at 13,965 on January 5th. It went up as high as 25,248 on October 1, 2011.

In 2012 Vancouver and the lower mainland’s active listings hit bottom at 15,444 on January 4th – which according to my limited knowledge of Feng Shui are considered bad numbers.

Bottoms Up

By January 25, 2012 Vancouver and the lower mainland’s active listing count was 18,976. With 2012′s active listing count jump starting at 15,444, it seems within the realm of possibility that a new higher level of active listings for 2012 is in the works – one that may supersede 2011.

Fire Breathing Thought

It is the Year of the Dragon, a creature which according to Chinese tradition, is regarded as a divine beast.

Reflecting in tandem upon the current lag in Vancouver home sales and the quickly rising number of active listings it makes one wonder if in a short time new to market Vancouver homes – part of the total active listings number, will no longer be regarded as divine, but rather a ‘beast of burden.’

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If you are a watcher of Vancouver’s Attached real estate market chances are you are also a professional coin flipper.

The 50/50 rule in this market would certainly provide you with more drama than you might seek. Making average price up or down calls would definitely lead you to think that you were either heading for hell or barely holding on to the basket’s handle.

Roller Coasters

Unlike the relative stability of the Detached Graph, the Attached graph and its undulating average prices is as a picture, more akin to you trying to catch that coin in mid air while strapped into boots as you ride the roller coaster rails.

• 2010 saw the Attached average price reach a high of $569,037 in June
• 2010 saw the Attached average price reach a low of $519,187 in October.
• 2011 saw the Attached average price reach a high of $573,534 in February.
• 2011 saw the Attached average price reach a low of $511,948.
• only 2 months in 2010 recorded sales higher than 500 units.
• 2011 saw 4 months that achieved or exceeded the 500 unit level.

• 2010′s highest month of listings was April at 1,230.
• 2011′s highest listing month was March at 1,080
• Lowest listing month in 2010 was December at 275
• Lowest listing month in 2011 was December at 237

Two Sides

Every coin has two sides. Knowing which one will match your call when it settles on the table is what makes the difference. Although 2011 was more active in terms of listings and sales even more astounding were the dramatic average price changes. Based on a 50/50 chance of success is high stakes when making a call while the coin is in mid air. If not that, then it is definitely high financial drama.

Sellers who made the call in February and September of 2011 with prices above the $573,000 mark were the clear winners of this simple coin toss game. Like all things in life, for those on the other side of the coin who purchased an attached Vancouver property in those months, suspect is that they would probably like a second chance to flip the coin.

We’ll have to wait out 2012 to see if they complete the roller coaster ride.

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Depending on how you look at things you might think that in 2011 the Vancouver Detached Real Estate market was set up in 2010 for some overt event.

The view seen from your 50/50 coin flipping in the air might suggest that Vancouver is either heading for hell in a hand basket or another day in paradise.

Up in The Air

If the graph represents a coin flipping in the air then Vancouver’s detached real estate market in 2010 and 2011 is a toss up as to which year had more drama.

• 2010 saw six months with an average price over one million dollars – the highest, October, $1,058,578.
• 2011 saw an entire year with Vancouver average home prices exceeding one million, the highest – May, $1,223,421.
• 2010′s Lowest average Vancouver price happened in July – $941,275.
• 2011 the lowest month, December – $1,064,249.
• 4 months in 2010 recorded sales that exceeded 1,100 units.
• 2011 had 6 months that achieved or exceeded that level.
• 2010′s highest month of listings was April at 3183.
• 2011′s highest listing month was March at 2,968
• Lowest listing month in 2010 was December at 658
• Lowest listing month in 2011 was (guess what)- December at 629

Head or Tail

There were ups and downs in both years but beyond detached homes setting a new landmark average of one million dollars, overall it doesn’t really seem like the detached market delivered any stupendous surprises. Alternatively, maybe we have become jaded and simply consider these numbers as the norm.

What about 2012? Many thumbs are stretched up and yet each one knows that with the coin flipping high in the air it is too early to tell if it is going to settle on its head or tail.

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Take a look around. Have you noticed that there are fewer lawn signs in your neighbourhood?

As sure as winter brings cold so too is the annual and somewhat predictable disappearance of weather worn Vancouver real estate For Sale signs.

Repeat

The market reaction is a bit slow this year but keeping in mind that it is only first business day of the new year I expect this week to see further drops in the total number of active listings.

Comparing the total Active listing count of January 3, 2011 which was 13,994, January 03, 2012 registered a dramatic drop from 18,024 to start the first business day of 2012 at 15,483.

Circles

The beginning of a New Year much like repeating circles, finds the Holiday spirit fading as we settle into our work routine. Repetitive, it is from within this routine that our passion for new beginnings and the pursuit of Vancouver Real Estate evolves.

Watch for a short one week market shake out of listings that haven’t sold. Then, as creatures of habit, we once more will follow our civic passion to buy and sell Vancouver real estate. If tradition is a circle, we can within days, expect to see Active Listings begin to climb thus signalling the rebirth of 2012′s Vancouver Real Estate Market with a crop of new For Sale signs in your neighbourhood.

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You would almost think it was a Boxing Day sale as the average price of a Vancouver home dropped to levels rivaling the last quarter of 2010.

Average Price 1977 – 2011

Detached

Comparatively, Vancouver home prices appear to be in need of a heat injection. The latest chill is certain to add layers of ice to buyer’s shopping carts as the average prices shivered to a low of $1,064,249 – down from November’s $1,134,936 to nearly match December 2010′s $1,046,348.

Attached

The average price of Vancouver’s Attached properties will need a blast furnace to stay warm. December’s average of $511,948 seems flash frozen compared to November 2011′s $565,168 or December 2010′s $526,556.

Apartment

The only segment without a chill is the Vancouver Apartment average price. December’s 2011 average climbed to $443,652 – up from November 2011′s average price of $431,808.

Vancouver Real Estate Average Price Numbers:

Vancouver Real Estate Inventory – Active Listings

Vancouver Real Estate – Units Sold

*Percent = YOY

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On October 1 2011 the total Active Listings of the three lower mainland real estate boards amounted to 25,248 units. On December 18, 2011 that number now sits at 19,797.

Keeping Pace

On December 18, 2010 the total Active listing count was 18,109. While there is a difference of about 1,000 units between this year and last year, we can look back to see that on Oct 1, 2011 the total was 25,248 whereas October 1, 2010′s total was slightly less at 24,457 units.

A quick glance suggests that the drop in Active listings this year is mimicking last year. Assuming this pattern, expect to see these numbers begin a very aggressive drop during the latter part of December approaching ‘nose dive’ status in the first few days of January.

Thoughts

Patterns sometimes look like Christmas trees. Unless the world goes flat, it also seems probable that the Vancouvr real estate market will slowly see Active listings begin to climb in the latter half of January and possibly continue to accelerate through the spring.

Forget finding any sugar plum fairies this Christmas! Rosario – the President of the Vancouver Real Estate Board has captured all of them in this, his November State of the Vancouver market report.

Stats Don’t Lie Fairy Stories

You might think this is all a fairy story but it’s hard to dispute the facts.

• Residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties on the region’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) reached 2,360 in November.
• This represents a 5.9 per cent decline compared to the 2,509 sales in November 2010 and a 1.9 per cent increase compared to the 2,317 sales recorded in October 2011.

• Sales levels remained fairly normal for this time of year
• New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 3,222 in November. This represents a 26.3 per cent decline compared to the 4,374 new listings reported in October 2011, but a 6.3 per cent increase compared to November 2010 when 3,030 properties were listed for sale on the MLS®.
• Total number of properties currently listed for sale on the Greater Vancouver MLS® sits at 14,090, a decline of 9 per cent compared to October 2011 but an increase of 13 per cent when compared to this time last year.
• Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver has increased 7.2 per cent YOY – Benchmark price dropped from high of $630,921 in June declining 1.4 per cent
• Detached sales in November 2011 reached 916, a decrease of 12.8 per cent YOY – Benchmark price for detached properties increased 11.4 per cent YOY
• Sales of apartment properties reached 1,000 in November 2011, a 4.9 per cent decrease YOY – Benchmark price of an apartment property increased 2.7 per cent YOY
• Attached property sales in November 2011 totalled 444, a 9.1 per cent increase YOY – Benchmark price of an attached unit increased 4.5 per cent YOY

State Address on Vancouver Real Estate

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Video Courtesy The Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board – Used with Permission

So it begins – the annual and somewhat predictable mass exodus of Vancouver Real Estate’s Active Listings.

Sticky

Comparing the total Active listing count of 19,123 on December 4 2010, now in 2011, it seems that some glue is slowing the fall to 20,993, a difference of 1,870 units.

Vanish

Allowing the presumption that humans are collectively creatures of habit, it is plausible to expect December 2011 to match December 2010 when almost 2,000 Active Listings vanished from the market place.

If It Was Good Once

Continuing the creature of habit assumption suggests that we should also be prepared for a resurgence in Vancouver real estate beginning mid January 2012.

Thoughts

My thoughts are that everyone has been lying low trying to figure out where the market will end up only to find that after their wait it will be exactly where they left it. Looking down the road there is a hint that mid January inventory will be low, the selection of houses in good condition will be minimal, and a further supposition is that everyone will be fed up with their wait and anxious to get on with their lives.

First stop on that journey – buy or sell a home.

I’m booking listings now for January. Need a Realtor® – get ready to move in March or April.

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A few weeks ago Vancouver’s Active Listing count appear to be on the edge a downward trend. Since then, a more profound change taken place as the Vancouver’s Active listing count seems on a path similar to last years’ yellow brick road.

2 V’s

The last time we looked at listing inventory an assumption was made that cycles prevail and that we are creatures of habit. From that vantage point it seemed reasonable to predict that in the next 60 days Active listings would begin to drop substantially. The current quick and substantial drop appears at this time, to support that assumption.

Pushing this thought further, we may well see listings vacate the inventory pool between now and the end of December that number in the thousands.

Local Anomalies

There have been a few houses selling in local west side markets that suggest there is a little bump in price as tear down homes on 33 foot lots sell at $1.4 million. A block away the same lot and a home that has been ‘tarted’ rings in at the $1.6 range. This all within a 10 day period.

I’m seeing some retired or close to retired people cashing in and moving out of neighbourhoods in which they have lived all their lives. The rationale I’m told is their desire to be near friends who had moved to another community.

Some Horns

Putting on a bullish hat and allowing the same cyclical presumptions, you might be safe to assume that Vancouver’s upcoming spring market will jump with a surge in price levels.

The counter point to all of this is of course, that the world was different a year ago. The perennial cautionary note is that if your game plan is to purchase a home for the short term, it remains uncertain whether a tin suit and a strong heart will be enough. Suspect is that the ongoing problems in world finance will surely make Vancouver real estate’s yellow brick road a bumpy ride.