It’s always fun to put the puzzle together to see what the picture looks like when finished. At the beginning of each month a series of LAPS are compiled to give us a visual of each market segment.

Today’s LAPS center on the Attached segment of the greater Vancouver market place.

Vancouver Attached Units Listed

Units Listed continued to drop from April’s high of 1230. Slowly the numbers are reducing as we dip from June’s 934 and July’s 677 to August’s 647 Active listings.

Vancouver Attached Units Sold

Compared to June /09, when 802 sales were recorded, the 374 sales recorded in August 2010 appear anemic until you compare that number to January /09′s, 109. August was up from July’s 368.

Vancouver’s Attached Active Listings

Active Listings remain high – but slowly decreasing.

August recorded 2,356 Active listings. While high, let’s not forget that in Sept/08 it was 3,115.

Vancouver’s Attached Average Price

Average Prices bounced back to $551,035 from July’s $529,253 but did not exceed June’s extraordinary $569,037

Crash

It’s 3:39 a.m.

It was supposed to be a quiet restful sleep with the cool last days of summer breeze flowing through the open window that was interrupted by the crashing sound of metal!

It was the sound of two cars unceremoniously coming together. It is a very distinctive sound once heard that is never forgotten.

Now bolt upright, soon slippers and clothes were on as I scooted outside to see if anyone was hurt and in need of assistance. There in the middle of the street was an old half tonne truck with its sheepish, tired driver scrambling to find pen and paper with which to leave a note for his new found friend who he has met by accident.

Sounds

Sounds are either pleasing or reverberate with terror. A car crash is one of those terror sounds. From a relative standpoint this morning’s crashing sound resulted in a missing car door, a mess of car parts on the street, bruised feelings of incompetence and the snap, snap, snap of light switches turned on by neighbours eager to survey the scene.

Subtle in tone, there also was the undercurrent of a grumbling sound emanating from those neighbours who had been ripped from their nights sleep. Notable was the sound that wasn’t heard. It was that silent sound of time. It was the sound unheard from those who must now take time to make things all right.

Different

Of late, that there are a number of people who visit here who make sounds of a different type of crash. The sound they hear is that of a real estate crash. What does that sound like you might ask? Is it distinctive? Is it terrifying?

History books tell of a real estate crash before my time but what did it sound like? Currently, one assumes our friends to the south are hearing that sound and yet that sound is only heard by some – not all. Though they are aware that others have heard that crashing sound, the greater majority it would seem, have not.

Finding Balance

A lot of readers come to this blog on a regular basis. Some presumably do not hear a crashing sound. My question is – are those who profess to hear the crash the majority or are they a cabal of the disfranchised?

On my about page I state that YatterMatters is ‘a place where everyone knows something but nobody knows everything’.

Well…this is one of those humbling moments where just when you think you know something fate rises up and slaps you across the head to tell you know less than you thought.

Case in point, a small postwar house in sad repair on East 59th!

Feathers

In the past few posts I’ve been going on about how a cute, pretty, well maintained, ready to move in type of house are selling briskly and often above ask in this current overpriced, low sales, buyer-less market. I also have said that the remaining product could be catagorized as a bit more trashy, are usually overpriced and will sit for a long time at their current prices which I believe are in need of adjustment.

Now based on this one listing I have to eat those feathers that helped me fly so high. But before I do, I qualify that flight by saying that while marvelous it was very short.

7 Days

I saw this house on an agents open last Thursday. None of the lights were working so I helped the agent figure out that one of the breakers was off. We presumed the sellers had turned it off so as to not waste electricity heating water when no one was living in the house. As it was an estate sale, having the hot water shut off seem perfectly normal. Problem was that all the lights and the hot water tank were on the same circuit.

The asking price was $749,000. It was a post war home build in the 50′s. Many had been built and they all look exactly the same. This area – Vancouver Fraserview, has a number of them remaining in various state of repair. Notable is that there is one across the street that was a grow-op recently put out of business.

This one has a south facing lot with true view potential of Georgia straight and Vancouver Island’s mountains. It is situated on a 47 X 113 lot. Structurally the house wasn’t too bad but, all the rooms as was the fashion of the day, are small and while it might be fun to try and make something out of it via renovations, you could never get the sense of space we hope for today’s homes except if you are building a lane-way house.

Mechanically it was pretty sad. A lot of home handy man alterations had been done over the years including the barely functional bathroom in the almost empty basement. The fir floors had all been painted a dark depressive brown. The wooden wall panel was very dating and served only as another example of how our foresty industry reinvents itself to sell us stuff that really has no lasting value. A massive very overgrown cherry tree occupies the rear yard.

The Slap On The Head

I would ask you kindly to forget what I said! This house sold on Monday – 7 days after it was listed. The slap on the head is deserved as this property drew six highly competitive offers. Two were over asking and it sold unconditionally for $762,000.

Slow market! Trashy listings! No buyers! Over priced! We all agreed right? But, is this sale one of those statistically irrelavent indicators that soon coalesce before our eyes to establish a change in market condition?

Forget what the numbers tell you – remember, they are historical. We might just be at the beginning of a change!

At this point, all I know is that it is enough to make me want to retune my accordion!

Buyer’s market conditions continue in Greater Vancouver

Conditions in the Greater Vancouver housing market continued to favour buyers in August. Since April, prices have edged down slightly as the number of sales and the number of properties coming on to the market have been declining.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) Report

The number of residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,202 in August 2010. This represents a 36 per cent decline from the 3,441 sales in August 2009, the second highest selling August ever recorded, and a 2.4 per cent decline compared to July 2010.

From a wider perspective, last month’s residential sales represent a 40.4 per cent increase over the 1,568 residential sales in August 2008, a 34.9 per cent decline compared to August 2007′s 3,384 sales, and a 26.6 per cent decline compared to August 2006′s 2,998 sales.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined 17.5 per cent to 3,750 in August 2010 compared to August 2009 when 4,544 new units were listed. Total active listings in Greater Vancouver currently sit at 15,421, a 6.1 per cent decline from last month and a 29 per cent increase from August 2009.

“We’re seeing moderate demand, low interest rates and a healthy but slowing stream of supply in our marketplace, all variables that favour those looking to purchase a home,” Jake Moldowan, REBGV president said. “The last few months have also shown some stability when it comes to price fluctuations in the region, which is a welcome trend after reaching record highs in April.”

Since spring, housing prices have decreased 2.8 per cent compared to the all-time high reached in April when the residential benchmark price was $593,419. Over the last 12 months, the MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver increased 6.9 per cent to $576,597 in August 2010 from $539,600 in August 2009.
“Canada remains an attractive destination for foreign buyers, a fact that continues to affect activity in the Greater Vancouver housing market,” Moldowan said.

Sales of detached properties in August 2010 reached 893, a decrease of 34.7 per cent from the 1,367 detached sales recorded in August 2009 and a 66.9 per cent increase from the 535 units sold in August 2008. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 8.5 per cent from August 2009 to $795,076.

Sales of apartment properties reached 935 in August 2010, a decline of 36.1 per cent compared to the 1,464 sales in August 2009 and an increase of 26.4 per cent compared to the 740 sales in August 2008.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 4.5 per cent from August 2009 to $385,968.

Attached property sales in August 2010 totalled 374, a decline of 38.7 per cent compared to the 610 sales in August 2009 and a 27.6 per cent increase from the 293 attached properties sold in August 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 6.6 per cent between August 2009 and 2010 to $489,511.

Download “UPDATED” complete stats package here.

Copyright© Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. All Rights Reserved. Used with Permission

Ortho makes an insecticide called Bug B Gone. They claim that it ‘kills over 100 insects on contact,and won’t harm roses, flowers or shrubs.’ A crucial instruction on the label is to ‘shake well before using’.

Suspect is that yesterday’s Average Vancouver prices might be to bears what Ortho’s spray is to bugs. Luckily, they like the roses, flowers and shrubs won’t suffer immense harm but my guess is that they have already been well shaken.

Bears do however, have persistence. With that, a further suspicion is that all are holding their breath as they wait for salvation in the Housing Price Index numbers posted by the REBGV in the next few days.

To them, seeing average numbers climb like August’s are frustrating. If bears make bubbles then certainly August’s prices have deflated them. Quoting a renowned Bearish blogger: “If I am wrong and September shows less sales, more inventory and higher prices…I will close the blog down because there is no point commenting on an irrational market.”¹

It might be irrational but who ever claimed that buyers and sellers, those people who determine a market, act in a rational manner.

Seeking some degree of rationale, a more comprehensive view of the market is rendered when its elements are combined. The addition of Units Listed, Units Sold and Active Listing to the mix gives us a more complete perspective.

Vancouver Detached Units Listed

Units Listed continued to drop from April’s high of 3183, a record level. Down from June’s 2300, July rang in at 1,702 now followed by August’s 1,524.

Vancouver Detached Units Sold

If sales a market make, then this one is headed down a slow slide. Relative to earlier months, July took a beating with only 911 sales, down from June’s 1141 and April’s high of 1372. Now in August the market has sales slowing a little more settling in at 898. Buyer abscense continues to leave sellers little option but to make pricing adjustment.

Vancouver’s Detached Active Listings

Active Listings dropped but still remain high compared to past times. This remains discouraging for sellers as the persistent number of listings maintains competition. Currently at 6,572, Active listings are down by almost 1,000 units compared to June’s high of 7,529. Looking back, it makes today’s market look good when you consider that in April 1990 there were 10,382 active listings and only 1,008 sales.

It’s Just a Thought

While RE Bears take time to reflect it may also be a good time to consider how and where this market may be going. I have said a great number of times that I’m only correct 50% of the time. I stand by that figure!

Keeping the correctness ration in mind proposed is that we have a very interesting scenario comprised of more than just the raw house data talked about. We also have an inordinate inordinate number of real estate practitioners. July recorded that the number of Realtors® registered with the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver has climbed to 10,058. I recall a similar but lesser number of Realtors® years ago and I believe that at the same time there was also a great number of listings. I could retrieve actual year, date and numbers but for purpose of making a point I’m going to rely on memory.

So what does this mean? It’s not a far stretch of the imagination to suspect that many of the newer folks haven’t got a clue. This is not meant to be derogatory or inflammatory as we all have to start somewhere but, at some point you have to ask is it possible that without the necessary knowledge and experience, a lot of listings are on the market because Aunt Nell wanted to help ‘Sunny Boy’ get ahead.

Sunny Boy, who not wanting to offend Aunt Nell and who wanting to prove his worth, lists the house aggressively. He then does open houses while he prays and hopes that the market will look after him and render him a hero in good ol’ Aunt Nell’s eyes. Sonny Boy who because of pride can’t muster the boldness to say to Aunt Nell, “Dear Auntie I’ve messed up and the real value of you home today is probably $100,000 less. I’m sorry Aunt Nell but that extra pension you were hoping for is gone.” Sadly, he also can’t say to Aunt Nell, “better luck next time” as Aunt Nell in all probability won’t be here for the next time. The result is that listings that should be reduced to match the market’s pace are not and everyone merrily continues to live in hope.

Now if you thought the RE Bears have a problem so does this market of Aunt Nells. It is entirely possible that due to the suspected number of Aunt Nell listings, the real number to watch are those of expired listing mandates. Aunt Nell has a good sense of mortality. Though she may love and care for Sonny Boy, at some point that listing will expire. She will at that time feel that she has done her Auntly duty. More enlightened with market knowledge, she will this time choose a Realtor® with more experience, knowledge and market savvy as she prices her home to sell.

The secondary number to watch is what I will call the Sunny Boy fall off. Almost assuredly the decrease in Realtors® will result in a corresponding drop in the number of Active Listings.

(1)

Some of you might remember the now old reel to reel tape recorders. They existed before cassettes, 8 track players, compact discs and memory sticks. It’s uncertain if the ubiquitous MP3 was even on the horizon at that time.

In March and April of 2010 the Vancouver real estate market reached a new horizon that few if any of us ever imagined as detached homes in Vancouver reached an average price of over $1,000,000.

Now here we are 4 months later, in a market rife with price reductions, a stunning lack of sales and enough inventory to fill Santa’s sack with all kinds of surprises.

It remains curious whether Santa planned August’s average prices to also be a surprise.

Average Price 1977 – 2010

Detached

Everyone rewound and caught our breath as we watched July’s average detached price fumble to a low of $941,275. Finally, it was thought, the market was headed back to sanity which for many, means it would become more affordable.

Surprise!

The Vancouver market has once again shown us that it is an ‘all bets are off’ kind of town.

The average price of a detached home has once again sky-rocketed. In another catch-your-breath moment it has in this month of August shot back up to $999,407 – a mere $593 dollars short of those March/April $1,000,000 records.

Attached

The Attached average price has equalled the detached surprise as it rebounds from July’s $529,253 reaching skyward to $551,035.

Apartment

Apartment average prices have of late matched the PNE’s Might Mouse roller coaster. Teetering on the edge of its track, it has seen a low this January at $420,566 then mere months later it turned the corner slamming your sensibilities as it reached July’s terminal velocity of $443,100. Then, as quickly, apartments hit another dip in the track with August’s $430,598.

Vancouver Real Estate Average Price Numbers:

Vancouver Real Estate Inventory – Active Listings

Vancouver Real Estate – Units Sold

This is the last day of August 2010. It is also the 7th Snapshot in the 7 day series.

We have visited seven communities that comprise the Vancouver Real Estate market. We will visit the markets of Coquitlam, Burnaby, Vancouver East, Vancouver West, North Vancouver, West Vancouver and Richmond.

Today we look at the last community in the series – Vancouver West.

During the two periods June 25, 2010 to July 24, 2010 and July 25, 2010 to August 24, 2010, detached properties in the Vancouver West neighbourhoods had the following results.

Listings

Total Listings decreased from June/July’s 881 to July/Aug’s 831.

Sales

Sales decreased from June/July’s 104 to July/Aug’s 85.

Expired, Reductions, Increases, Days on Market

Dunbar At 29th – 1923 CVA 173-D-5

• June/July had 86 listing mandates expire. That number decreased to 55 in July/Aug.
• Price reductions in June/July were 208 slowing to 195 in July/Aug.
• There were 30 price increases in June/July and 21 in July/Aug.
• Part of this market’s story lies in the time it takes to sell a home. It took an average of 37 days to sell a home in June/July. That has increased to 53 days in July/Aug.

Average and Median Prices

• June/July’s Average Ask price was $1,888,348. This average increased in July/Aug to $1,910,031.
• The Median Ask price in June/July was $1,656,500. It increased to $1,699,000 in July/Aug.
• The Average Sold price in the June/July was $1,808,382. In July/Aug this increased to $1,827,411.
• The Median Sold price in June/July was $1,580,000. In July/Aug the median went up to $1,650,000.

Take Away

Again this snapshot’s most evident element of change is the decrease in sales and the length of time it takes to sell a home along with prices that show resistance in their decline.

This is the final report in the 7 day series. What lies beyond will be determined in REBGV’S MLS® monthly totals due out tomorrow. As we have seen some variances in these community snapshots I would expect that the month end numbers will be just as astonishing.

There are 2 days remaining in this the month of August 2010.

In this 7 day series we will visit seven communities that comprise the Vancouver Real Estate market. We will visit the markets of Coquitlam, Burnaby, Vancouver East, Vancouver West, North Vancouver, West Vancouver and Richmond.

Counting down – on day 7 we looked at Coquitlam, on day 6 we visited Burnaby, on day 5 we visited Richmond, on day 4 it was North Vancouver, day 3 we looked at West Vancouver. Today, the 6th of the 7 day series we visit Vancouver’s East side detached market.

During the two periods June 25, 2010 to July 24, 2010 and July 25, 2010 to August 24, 2010, detached properties in the Vancouver East neighbourhoods had the following results.

Listings

Total Listings decreased from June/July’s 858 to July/Aug’s 830.

Sales

Sales decreased from June/July’s 112 to 81 in July/Aug.

Expired, Reductions, Increases, Days on Market

300 Blk Cordova 1943 shows a small child standing by a row of houses
in the slum district of Vancouver. CVA 1184-638

• June/July had 81 listing mandates expire which increased to 84 in July/Aug.
• Price reductions in June/July were 247 slowing to 230 in July/Aug.
• There were 29 price increases in both periods.
• Telling is the increase in time it takes to sell a home. It took an average of 28 days to sell a home in June/July. That increased to 41 days in July/Aug.

Average and Median Prices

• June/July’s Average Ask price was $801,330. This average decreased in July/Aug to $773,150.
• The Median Ask price in June/July was $793,500. It decreased to $738,000 in July/Aug.
• The Average Sold price in the June/July was $787,014. In July/Aug this dropped to $752,731.
• The Median Sold price in June/July was $781,250. In July/Aug the median dropped to $715,000.

Take Away

According to the snapshots most evident elements of change are the huge decrease in sales and the ever growing number of days it takes to sell a home. Prices appear to be on a slow and steady downward path.

Tomorrow is the final day in the 7 day series. We will visit Vancouver West. Beyond that it will be anyone’s guess as we wait for REBGV’S MLS® monthly totals.

In this 7 day series we will visit seven communities that comprise the Vancouver Real Estate market. We will visit the markets of Coquitlam, Burnaby, Vancouver East, Vancouver West, North Vancouver, West Vancouver and Richmond.

Counting down – on day 7 we looked at Coquitlam, on day 6 we visited Burnaby, on day 5 we visited Richmond, on day 4 it was North Vancouver. Today, the third day before the end of the August we visit the West Vancouver detached market.

During the two periods June 25, 2010 to July 24, 2010 and July 25, 2010 to August 24, 2010, detached properties in the West Vancouver neighbourhoods had the following results.

Listings

Total Listings decreased from June/July’s 598 to July/Aug’s 579.

Sales

As in other areas sales took a hit. They are down from June/July’s 52 to 26 in July/Aug.

Expired, Reductions, Increases, Days on Market

Logging Flume Hollyburn Ridge – 1923 Photo Credit: Rupert Harrison Collection

• June/July had 32 listing mandates expire increasing to 39 in July/Aug.
• Price reductions in June/July were 184 decreasing to 175 in July/Aug.
• There were 10 price increases in June/July and 7 in July/August.
• This is ugly – it took 74 days to sell a house in July/August up from June/July’s 53.

Average and Median Prices

• June/July’s Average Ask price was $1,870,323. The average increased in July/Aug rising to $2,004,865.
• The Median Ask price in June/July was $1,391,500 and increased to $1,635,000 in July/Aug.
• The Average Sold price in the June/July was $1,730,130. In July/Aug this increased to $1,869,903.
• The Median Sold price in June/July was $1,337,500. In July/Aug the median sold price increased to $1,517,500.

Looking Ahead

At 74 days on the market, West Vancouver’s sellers are waiting a long time to find a buyer. Based on these Snapshot average and median prices, it was worth it.

Tomorrow we’ll cross over the Iron Workers bridge and head to Vancouver East.

In this 7 day series we will visit seven communities that comprise the Vancouver Real Estate market. We will visit the markets of Coquitlam, Burnaby, Vancouver East, Vancouver West, North Vancouver, West Vancouver and North Vancouver.

On day 7 we looked at Coquitlam, on day 6 we visited Burnaby, and on day 5 we visited Richmond. Today, the 4th day of the August count down, we will visit the North Vancouver detached market.

During the two periods June 25, 2010 to July 24, 2010 and July 25, 2010 to August 24, 2010, detached properties in the North Vancouver neighbourhoods had the following results.

Listings

Total Listings decreased from June/July’s 462 to July/Aug’s 432.

Sales

Sales had a bump on its way down from June/July’s 71 to 39 in July/Aug.

Expired, Reductions, Increases, Days on Market

North Vancouver Ferry – 1904: Photo Credit

• June/July had 31 listing mandates expire increasing to 33 in July/Aug.
• Price reductions in June/July were 170 increasing to 157 in July/Aug.
• There were 4 price increases in June/July and 3 in July/August.
• The 36 days that it took to sell a house in July/August must now seem like a dream compared to June/July’s 63.

Average and Median Prices

• June/July’s Average Ask price was $958,381. The average decreased a little in July/Aug to $952,164.
• The Median Ask price in June/July was $869,000 and increased to $898,000 in July/Aug.
• The Average Sold price in the June/July was $934,454. In July/Aug this dropped to $931,323.
• The Median Sold price in June/July was $850,000. In July/Aug the median sold price increased to $882,000.

Looking Ahead

North Vancouver’s sellers are waiting 63 days to sell a home which is not something we have seen for a very long time. It would seem that the dark cloud of few sales has also extended its cover to the north shore suggesting that this may cause North Vancouver sellers to wait even longer.

Tomorrow we’ll skoot along the upper levels highway, cross the Capilano river and visit West Vancouver.

While doing a Realtor® walk about in the Glen Park neighbourhood the quiet hum of the city was abruptly interrupted by an unusual noise.

The Force

Looking about to find where the sound was originating I was greeted by a most unusual sight. Proudly sitting atop their steeds were two of Vancouver’s finest clip clopping along.

For a moment I thought nah… they couldn’t possibly be patrolling the streets in the hopes of saving and protecting the Vancouver real estate market.