Somerville Gump
Posted January 26th, 2010 in Real Estate, Sharing the Experience | 
Off to See Wizard Tsur
While skipping down the Yellow Brick road of Vancouver real estate, a lot of folks have wondered if they, like Dorothy, will with a click of their heels, get back to Kansas.
First taking position as the Wicked Witch of the East, our good and wise friend, Assoc. Prof. Tsur SOMERVILLE from the Sauder School of Business, lays the key brick in the Yellow Brick Road dashing all hope for Dorothy’s return.
The Good Witch
Waving his wand in a report whose title begins with “No evidence”, Somerville is clear – “cities that win Olympic bids experience neither boom nor bust in their real estate prices, but gain construction jobs as they prepare for the Games.”
Not So Nice Witch
Morphing character to cast his spell, Somerville cuts short his incantation saying that “we do not find support for the argument of host city backers that the Olympics deliver positive economic benefits, nor of the arguments made by opponents that there is some post-Olympic bust.”
Adamant in declaration, he is telling real estate bulls and bears to settle down because the “results conclusively
demonstrate that while construction employment dramatically increases in the period prior to the Games, house prices are the same as they would be in the absence of the Games.”
Gumped!
Somerville’s neutralizing report morphes once again as a treatise of pointed brevity becoming a mate to Forrest Gump’s memorable line in which he says – “That’s all I have to say about that.”

Not so fast.
I really DO think many people in Vancouver (and environs) bought into the “Olympic fever” at a fever pitch. They really, honestly believe the hype about increasin values due to the Olympics.
(Did any of them hop on a plane to Turin? Doubtful…)
This real estate cycle is the strongest, and longest in duration and intensity.
It DOES not mean we’re immune to a downturn, however. We’re just late to the party.
Boombust,
“DOES not mean we’re immune to a downturn”
Don’t think Somerville’s research implied that. My take was that the Olympics were not a factor in house pricing.