Vancouver-Bottom of the Ninth
Posted October 15th, 2009 in Real Estate, Sharing the Experience
Same ol’ Record
BCREA cut another groove with it’s latest missive. The intensity of the “For Immediate Release” always sets you up for stunning never-heard-before news from the front lines of Real Estate in B.C. Sadly, this particular missive and it’s seasonally adjusted graph evoked in this author, an image of a broken record.
Dust
For the past while, a lot of folks have been like a phonograph needle skipping a track. They repetitively point to Vancouver’s great real estate disaster of 2008 as a baseline. The web is over-run with graphs and statistics telling us how bad it was. Totaled, the doom and gloom dust contained within the groove may exceed the actual event. At question is whether it’s time to change the tune?
New Ball Game
Now in Q4 of 2009, the relevance of the year over year comparison to 2008 seems trite. Compared to the technology world news like this equates to announcing Motorola’s first cell phone will be available for purchase next week. Simply, both are irrelevant!
Time has passed. What we have before us is a new ball game with different players. The big guy on the mound is record low interest rates. With each pitch in interest, the game changes. As outfielders, the real estate consumer tenses in anticipation of the ball being struck. Will the hit be left or right, high or low? Will it be a strike out? The uncertainty, tantalizing in anticipation.
Bottom of the Ninth
Comparison to 08’s baseline to today’s values and sales volumes to those of 2008 is akin to watching the Fat Lady lose 300 pounds in 10 months. Like the repeating scratch on the broken record, the 08 – 09 YOY comparison serves a singular purpose. It only assures you that the Fat Lady has regained that which she lost.
Seemingly oblivious to the repetition, BCREA seems in harmony with the Fat Lady. Obscured by the repetition is that the game of the new team is yet to be understood. Early assumptions are difficult – we are only in the 1st inning. Wait we must, for the bottom of the ninth.
*Disclaimer: Graph Courtesy BCREA. While believed to be accurate is not guaranteed.
