Vancouver Caught with Pants Down
Posted September 22nd, 2009 in Real Estate, Real Estate Stuff | 
Little People
The pundits, the bankers, the economists, and all others including REALTORS®, have tried to figure out why the housing market in Vancouver grew in proportions equaling that of a woman about to deliver quintuplets. Some cite cheap interest rates, pent up demand or the slowly improving global economy as their reason. With tongue in cheek, this author suggests that the Globe and Mail may have caught all those prognosticators with their pants down discovering what may be the real reason for Vancouver’s incredible housing boom.
Wonder no Longer
It’s all about the BABIES! Referring to a recent Stats Cans report the Globe notes that “Canadian women gave birth to 367,864 children in 2007 – the fastest annual increase since 1989.” Why is Vancouver real estate on the move – simple. “Four provinces — Alberta, Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia accounted for a whopping 83% of the total births.”
Sanity Space
The result of this pants down activity is that these little people grow and need space. As a parent of these little people, their addition to your life renders the 550 square foot Yaletown condo unworkable. The power of children causes many to do things previously unthought. That power may extend to making you pay what ever it takes to find enough home space to make them happy and in doing so keep your sanity – even if it takes a 35 year mortgage to do so.
From the StatsCan link:
“In 2007, four provinces (Alberta, Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia) accounted for 83% of the total increase in births.
.. and British Columbia, 14%.”
Any bets on what percentage of the population of Canada lives in BC? 13% I love/hate the media.
Continuing the tongue in cheek argument:
There’s 13,247 more babies in Canada of which 14% are in BC, that’s 1855 babies. Now 56% of those babies are from women aged 30+, that’s 1039 babies. These 30+ women are likely to be the type to own a trendy condo, so there will be a high concentration of these 1039 babies in Yaletown. That could explain the 100s of new listings in the West End.
Lets go one further. Recessions cause people to cut expenses and stay in. Its also one of the leading factors in increased birthrate, as couples engage in cheaper more rewarding “fun” at home. This could explain the increased birthrate…
Wait, the stats are from 2006-2007, prior to the market meltdown so either we wait for more information and better analysis, or post a sensation headline in the Sun/Province since its a slow news day.
Sanity Space should be titled Insanity Space.
I met a mother in my building who recently bought a $480K condo on 35yr mortgage cause she needed a bigger space for son. She’s maxed out the TDS at 5%, heaven forbid what happens if rates reset to 6%.
In an effort to pay “whatever it takes” she’s put her family in a pickle 5 years from now, with few options outside of moving much further away.
I’m still undecided if I should feel bad, or encourage more of this so prices fall off the cliff in 5 years time.
Chris,
thanks for catching the four provinces error. Based on traffic at open houses BC with 83% seemed possible.
Re perspective on Yale Town: Analysis with a sense of humor is always a good thing.
Where’s your blog Chris Taylor? Great Comments!
SuperSocco
What! Material here not good enough?